วันอาทิตย์ที่ 16 ตุลาคม พ.ศ. 2554
Russia halts oil supply to China after quake
Anti-dumping probe begins on polyurethane imports
วันศุกร์ที่ 14 ตุลาคม พ.ศ. 2554
Crude Oil Climbs to Three-Week High on G-20 Discussions, U.S. Retail Sales
Crude oil rose to a three-week high as the Group of 20 began discussions in Paris on a solution to Europe’s debt crisis and U.S. retail sales climbed.
Futures increased 3.1 percent after G-20 and International Monetary Fund officials said the IMF may bolster its lending resources to help stem the crisis. U.S. retail sales advanced 1.1 percent last month, the Commerce Department said today. Brent oil in London traded at a record premium to West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, for the second straight day.
“The debt crisis is far from over but it appears that they are making progress, which is bullish for oil,” said Michael Wittner, the head of oil-market research at Societe Generale SA in New York. “Economic data, especially in the U.S., has improved recently. It’s now mixed, rather than negative.”
Crude oil for November delivery rose $2.57 to $86.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Sept. 20. Prices climbed 4.6 percent this week and have dropped 5 percent in 2011.
Brent oil for November settlement rose $3.57, or 3.2 percent, to end the session at $114.68 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange. November futures expired today. The more active December contract climbed $3.03, or 2.8 percent, to $112.23.
The European benchmark future exceeded the New York contract by $27.88 a barrel today, based on front-month closing prices. The previous record spread was $26.88 yesterday.
‘Waning’ Relevance
The relevance of West Texas Intermediate to oil markets is “waning” as some commodity indexes raise weights of Brent, Barclays Capital said. The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index announced Oct. 11 it will include Brent for the first time in January, with a weighting of 5.31 percent, and cut its WTI allocation to 9.69 percent from 14.71 percent. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index said on Oct. 6 it will make similar changes.
European leaders may complete a debt plan at an Oct. 23 summit to present to a gathering of G-20 chiefs Nov. 3-4. Yesterday, Standard & Poor’s cut Spain’s credit rating for the third time in three years and new data showed the eight largest U.S. money-market funds almost halved their lending to French banks last month.
“The outlook for an IMF-G-20 plan is overshadowing all of the country and bank downgrades,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “The prospect of bailouts is bullish for oil. When there’s a new plan in the works it’s a signal for investors to buy commodities.”
European Proposals
European officials are considering writedowns of as much as 50 percent on Greek bonds, a backstop for banks and continued central bank bond purchases to combat the debt crisis, people familiar with the discussions said. The Greek bond losses may be accompanied by a pledge to rule out debt restructurings in other countries that receive bailouts, said the people, who declined to be identified because the negotiations are ongoing.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 1.3 percent to 1,219.79 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.1 percent to 11,602.10. The dollar dropped 0.7 percent to $1.3874 against the euro. A weaker U.S. currency bolsters the appeal of dollar- denominated raw materials as an investment.
“What the market does each day recently depends on how we are looking at the European debt situation,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford,Connecticut. “Today we’re wearing rose-tinted glasses.”
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials climbed 2.6 percent to 639.14. The index is up 5.4 percent this week and headed for the biggest weekly gain since December.
Economic Outlook
“Oil is moving on the economic outlook and the overall strength in commodity markets,” saidRick Mueller, a principal with ESAI Energy LLC in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “It’s responding to the better outlook for U.S. economic growth and speculation that we may be near some sort of resolution to the euro-zone crisis.”
August retail sales climbed 0.3 percent, up from a previous estimate of no change, the Labor Department in Washington said. Ten of 13 major U.S. retail categories showed increases last month, led by auto dealers and clothing stores.
“We’re experiencing a swing in sentiment based on hope and optimism, not a change in the underlying fundamentals,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “The retail numbers were nice but we need to see a gain in income as well for this to signal something sustainable.”
OPEC Meeting
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet on Dec. 14 in Vienna to discuss whether to cut or increase member’s production targets.
“The rise in prices will make OPEC’s task a lot easier in December,” Armstrong said. “The Brent price was recently flirting with $100, but is now comfortably higher. There’s probably a comfortable feeling in the Middle East as a result.”
Oil volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 587,280 contracts as of 3:06 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 759,857 contracts yesterday, 13 percent above the average of the past three months. Open interest was 1.43 million contracts.
To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net
U.S. Retail Sales Rise More-Than-Forecast 1.1%, Easing Recession Concern
Retail sales rose in September by the most in seven months, showing American consumers are helping the world’s largest economy fend off a slump.
Purchases grew 1.1 percent, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, Commerce Department data showed today in Washington. Another report called into question whether gains in spending can be sustained as household confidence unexpectedly dropped this month.
Retailers like Macy’s Inc. (M) and Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) are among those planning to boost hiring, betting demand will hold up into the November-December holidays, the biggest selling season of the year. Stocks surged globally after the sales figures beat estimates and countries in the Group of 20 began talks to try to mitigate the European debt crisis.
“It looks like we’re going to be avoiding a recession,” said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc. in New York, who projected sales would climb 1 percent. “Even though consumers don’t feel good, there is job growth going on and that is fueling some pickup in spending.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.7 percent to 1,224.58 at the 4 p.m. close in New York, capping its biggest weekly gain since July 2009. Treasury securities fell, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up to 2.25 percent from 2.18 percent late yesterday.
Survey Results
The median forecast of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.7 percent rise in purchases last month. Estimates ranged from gains of 0.2 percent to 1.6 percent. The Commerce Department revised the August figure to show a 0.3 percent increase from little change previously reported.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 57.5 this month from 59.4 in September. The median estimate of economists surveyed called for a reading of 60.2.
The gauge of consumer expectations for six months from now, which more closely projects the direction of consumer spending, dropped to 47, the lowest since May 1980.
“For the most part, the labor market has held up OK so far, and ultimately the spending numbers are driven by spending power more than anything else,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global Inc. in New York. “That’s not to say that we should dismiss the big drop in confidence as irrelevant. It does keep alive the possibility that the labor market will weaken more over the next couple of months and in turn consumer spending will weaken.”
Broad-Based Gains
Ten of the 13 major retail categories showed increases last month, led by auto dealers and clothing stores.
Vehicle sales climbed 3.6 percent, the most since March 2010, today’s report showed. The results are in line with industry figures.
Cars and light trucks sold at a 13.1 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in September, according to Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey-based Autodata Corp. The rate was the highest since April’s 13.2 million, when lost output caused by Japan’s earthquake and tsunami began crimping supply of cars and parts.
Excluding autos, gasoline and building materials, which are the figures used to calculate gross domestic product, sales also rose 0.6 percent, the most since March, after a 0.4 percent August increase.
Consumers, for now, are weathering a stagnant job market. Payrolls climbed by 103,000 workers in September and the jobless rate was 9.1 percent for a third month, Labor Department figures showed earlier this month.
Unemployment a Concern
“The U.S. has a long-term issue with unemployment that for the average consumer is going to remain challenging,” Blake Jorgensen, chief financial officer for Levi Strauss & Co., said in a telephone interview this week from San Francisco, where the closely held company is based. “We’re remaining cautious.”
President Barack Obama, lawmakers and the Federal Reserve face pressure to spur the jobs needed to support household spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy.
The Fed last month decided to extend maturities of its Treasury holdings while selling an equal amount of shorter-term securities, as part of the so-called Operation Twist, in a bid to push down long-term borrowing costs. Obama has vowed to keep pressing Congress to vote on individual components of his $447 billion jobs bill that was blocked in the Senate on Oct. 11.
Budget Shortfall
The government today report its annual budget deficit exceeded $1 trillion for a third consecutive fiscal year, showing how difficult it will be for legislators to agree on new proposals. The shortfall registered $1.3 trillion in 2011, up from $1.29 trillion the prior year and the second-highest on record, according to Treasury Department data. It reached $1.42 trillion in 2009, the highest ever.
Some retailers are looking beyond the fiscal headwinds. Macy’s, the second-biggest U.S. department-store chain, is increasing hiring of mostly part-time workers by 4 percent for the holiday season to match sales growth in its stores and online. Kohl’s, the fourth-largest U.S. department-store chain, said last week it may hire more than 40,000 holiday workers, a 5 percent increase from 2010.
A third report today showed inventories at U.S. companies rose more than forecast in August, signaling businesses are anticipating a pickup in sales. The 0.5 percent increase in stockpiles matched the gain in July that was larger than initially estimated, according to the Commerce Department.
The increase was led by the biggest jump in auto and parts stockpiles in more than a year, showing supply-chain constraints from Japan’s March disaster have abated.
Also today, Labor Department figures showed prices of imported goods unexpectedly rose in September, reflecting a jump in metals and higher costs of crude oil that have since receded. The 0.3 percent gain followed a revised 0.2 percent decrease in August.
วันอังคารที่ 11 ตุลาคม พ.ศ. 2554
ใบอนุญาตก่อสร้างคอนโดฯพุ่ง
นายสัมมา คีตสิน ผู้อำนวยการ ศูนย์ข้อมูลอสังหาริมทรัพย์ ธนาคารอาคารสงเคราะห์ กล่าวว่า การออกใบอนุญาตก่อสร้างที่อยู่อาศัยอาคารชุดหรือคอนโดมิเนียม ในรอบครึ่งแรกของปีนี้ทั่วประเทศมีจำนวน 293 อาคาร พื้นที่ก่อสร้างรวมประมาณ 2.72 ล้านตารางเมตร เฉลี่ยประมาณ 1.86 หมื่นตารางเมตรต่ออาคาร
ขณะที่ครึ่งแรกของปี 2553 มีการออกใบอนุญาตจำนวน 195 อาคาร พื้นที่ก่อสร้างรวมประมาณ 2.67 ล้านตารางเมตร เฉลี่ยประมาณ 2.67 หมื่นตารางเมตรต่ออาคาร โดยในปี 2553 ทั้งปีมี 433 อาคาร พื้นที่ก่อสร้างประมาณ 5.22 ล้านตารางเมตร เฉลี่ยประมาณ 1.21 หมื่นตารางเมตรต่ออาคาร
สำหรับการออกใบอนุญาตก่อสร้างเฉพาะในกรุงเทพมหานครจังหวัดเดียว มีจำนวน 106 อาคาร พื้นที่ก่อสร้างรวมประมาณ 2.01 ล้านตารางเมตร เฉลี่ยประมาณ 3.82 หมื่นตารางเมตรต่ออาคาร เทียบกับครึ่งแรกของปีที่แล้วมีเพียง 60 อาคาร พื้นที่ก่อสร้างรวมประมาณ 1.66 ล้านตารางเมตร เฉลี่ยประมาณ 5.59 ตารางเมตรต่ออาคาร โดยเป็นที่น่าสังเกตว่า อาคารชุดที่รับใบอนุญาตก่อสร้างในครึ่งแรกของปีนี้เป็นอาคารขนาดเล็กกว่าในปีที่แล้ว แต่ก็ยังเป็นขนาดอาคารที่ใหญ่มากกว่าในจังหวัดอื่นๆ
ทั้งนี้ หากย้อนหลังไปในปี 2551 มีพื้นที่ก่อสร้างอาคารชุดในกรุงเทพฯ ประมาณ 3.90 ล้านตารางเมตร พื้นที่เฉลี่ย 1.3 หมื่นตารางเมตรต่ออาคาร ต่อมาในปี 2552 มีประมาณ 3.85 ล้านตารางเมตร พื้นที่เฉลี่ย 2.15 ตารางเมตรต่ออาคาร และในปี 2553 มีประมาณ 3.70 ล้านตารางเมตร พื้นที่เฉลี่ย 2.42 หมื่นตารางเมตรต่ออาคาร จึงเห็นว่าอาคารชุดในกรุงเทพฯนั้นมีขนาดพื้นที่เฉลี่ยต่ออาคารสูงขึ้นทุกปี
ส่วนในจังหวัดปริมณฑลรอบกรุงเทพฯ 5 จังหวัดรวมกัน มีการออกใบอนุญาตก่อสร้างอาคารชุด 30 อาคาร พื้นที่ก่อสร้างรวมประมาณ 8.7 หมื่นตารางเมตร เฉลี่ยประมาณ 5,000 ตารางเมตรต่ออาคาร เทียบกับครึ่งแรกของปีที่แล้วมี 45 อาคาร พื้นที่ก่อสร้างรวมประมาณ 3.37 แสนตารางเมตร เฉลี่ยประมาณ 1.2 หมื่นตารางเมตรต่ออาคาร
Imported iron ore stocks, prices fall last week
Yen Strength May Cost Toyota More Than Quake
The earthquake that crippled Japan in March may cost Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) less than the rising yen.
Operating profit for the world’s top carmaker will be cut by 250 billion yen ($3.3 billion) in the year ending March 31 because of the currency’s advance, based on the average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The natural disaster may cost 160 billion yen, Toyota said in August.
“There is pent-up demand and with production back to normal, Toyota can quickly make up for the reduction in output due to the quake,” Issei Takahashi, a Tokyo-based auto analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG, which has a “neutral” rating on the carmaker. “It’s more of the reality of the strong yen that Toyota needs to tackle.”
The maker of the Prius and Camry produces two out of five vehicles inJapan, making it more vulnerable to the yen than Nissan Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co. The currency’s climb, to a postwar high against the dollar in August and the strongest in a decade versus the euro last month, is an added headwind for Toyota, which was outsold by General Motors Co. and Volkswagen AG in the first six months of the year.
“We are struggling,” Toyota’s Chief Financial Officer Satoshi Ozawa said Oct. 10 at the automaker’s factory in Ovar, Portugal. “We are facing a difficult time. We have to reduce our production costs to compensate for the currency situation.”
That may involve shifting manufacturing from Japan “to some extent,” he said.
Price Cuts
Toyota is telling parts suppliers to slash prices or face being replaced by overseas rivals, according to four people involved with the discussions.
The Toyota City, Japan-based automaker made the demand for price cuts at the end of August to its 219 largest domestic suppliers, including Denso Corp. (6902) and Aisin Seiki Co., at a meeting held in Nagano prefecture, according to the people.
Every one-yen advance against the dollar cuts Toyota’s operating income by 34 billion yen, while a gain versus the euro reduces operating income by 6 billion yen, according to the company’s full-year forecast in August. Toyota is basing this year’s forecast on 80 yen to the dollar and 116 yen to the euro.
The yen traded at 76.66 to the dollar yesterday, extending this year’s gain to 6.1 percent. The Japanese currency has risen 4.3 percent in 2011 against the euro, which traded at 104.25.
Toyota made about 45 percent of its cars in Japan last year, compared with 25 percent for Nissan Motor Co. and 26 percent for Honda Motor Co.
Honda, Nissan
Honda expects a 71 billion yen cut in operating profit while Nissan sees a 135 billion yen reduction because of the yen’s climb this year.
Japan’s government needs to establish “a normal exchange rate,” Carlos Ghosn, Nissan’s chief executive officer, said on Oct. 6.
The yen is expected to trade at 79 yen to the dollar in the year ending March 31, according to the average of 43 analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.
“Sooner or later, Toyota will have to revise its forecast,” Kohei Takahashi, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in a phone interview.
Toyota said Aug. 2 it expects the strong yen to cut operating profit by 160 billion yen in the year ending March 31 to 450 billion yen, compared with an earlier forecast in June for a 100 billion yen drop. The carmaker put the one-time cost from lost production of 150,000 units after the quake at 160 billion yen.
Parts Shortage
Credit Suisse estimates the yen impact at 260 billion yen, TIW sees a 350 billion yen cut in operating profit, JPMorgan estimates a drop of 200 billion yen. Citigroup Inc. and Carnorama predict declines due to the currency at 238.4 billion yen and 200 billion yen respectively.
Toyota temporarily halted all production after the magnitude-9 earthquake and tsunami on March 11 triggered a shortage of parts and electricity.
The resulting cutbacks caused the automaker to fall behind GM and VW in global sales in the first half of the year.
Toyota and subsidiaries Daihatsu Motor Co. and Hino Motors Ltd. sold a combined 3.71 million vehicles worldwide in the first half. GM, based in Detroit, sold 4.54 million cars and light trucks, while Wolfsburg, Germany-based VW sold 4.13 million vehicles, according to statements by the companies.
The Bank of Japan last week held off adding more monetary stimulus. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his policy board members unanimously kept the overnight lending rate between zero and 0.1 percent at a meeting in Tokyo Oct. 7, the central bank said in a statement.
Loan Program
They also left credit and asset-buying programs totaling 50 trillion yen unchanged, while extending a loan program in earthquake-affected areas. Shirakawa called existing easing measures “powerful.”
Toyota reported global production in August rose for the first time in 12 months, showing the automaker’s return to normal production. Output in August rose 10.6 percent to 626,817 vehicles, the first increase since September 2010, when the government ended subsidies for fuel-efficient cars. The automaker has pledged to maintain domestic production of 3 million units.
Still, Toyota lost market share in the U.S. and expects dealers’ inventories to return to pre-quake levels by March, according to spokeswoman Amiko Tomita. Held back by tight supplies of Prius hybrids and Tundra pickups, Toyota’s market share fell to 11.5 percent from 15.3 percent a year earlier in September, according to researcher Autodata Corp.
“Toyota needs to quickly come up with a strategy to maintain its earnings,” said Satoru Takadaat TIW. “It doesn’t seem like the yen will weaken anytime soon.”
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