วันเสาร์ที่ 29 ตุลาคม พ.ศ. 2554

US Morning Market Analysis: Asian aromatics finish week stronger


Asian benzene prices continued to rise October 28, achieving a $10/mt day on day gain on an FOB Korea basis to close at $1000.50/mt. However the rebound continued to be slower than gains in the US, where benzene on October 27 was assessed at $952.30/mt FOB USG. (See chart 1)
Europe has also firmed to be assessed at $928/mt CIF ARA on October 27. With Europe is still in an excess supply situation, traders watched to see if shipments would be sent from there to Asia.
Asian mixed xylene climbed $12.50 overnight to $1,293/mt FOB Korea. The continued strength in the Asian MX market widened the potential arbitrage from the US. The US price was assessed October 27 at $1,145/mt FOB USG, putting the spread between the US and Asia at nearly $150/mt. (See chart 2)
Freight rates were estimated near $70/mt. The arb to Asia has actually been open since October 12, but sources said vessel space was limited from the US to Asia for November.
Asian paraxylene edged $2.50/mt higher day on day October 28 to close at $1,547.50/mt CFR Taiwan/China. Week on week, PX gained $83.50/mt or 5.7% as prompt buyers were out in force to seek cargoes with just days to go before November expiry.
For the week, PX has managed to stay above $1,500/mt as November PX Asia Contract Price nominations were made in a range of $1,590-1,620/mt CFR. The proposals will expire October 31 and a settlement is widely expected. There was no October ACP settlement as buyers and sellers failed to reach consensus. PX's rebound was in tandem with downstream purified terephthalic acid, which saw a 5.79% rebound from the previous week. PTA closed October 28 at $1,150/mt CFR China for Taiwan origin cargoes.
In the US, the PX price on October 27 was assessed at $1,517.50/mt FOB SUG. The European PX price was the lowest globally at $1,455/mt FOB Rdam. (See chart 3)
Asian styrene monomer prices moved up on the back of firming demand, especially in the China market. Buying interest was seen increasing by several sources due on a slightly improved outlook for the macro economy. Nevertheless, demand from downstream end-users was not seen as that bullish and it remains to be seen if the current uptick will continue.
On an FOB Korea basis, the price climbed to $1,297/mt for H1 December material on October 28. Some sources were expecting that the European market was attractive for US-origin SM due to cheaper freight rates compared with Asia, which could tighten supply early 2012. The US prompt price was assessed October 27 at $1,240/mt FOB USG. The European price for November was assessed October 27 at $1,330/mt FOB Rdam. (See chart 4)
All of the charts featured were built on Platts on the Net. The formulas we use are estimates to illustrate industry-wide trends. Subscribers to Platts on the Net can modify the formulas to better reflect their own assumptions. If you are a Platts on the Net subscriber, and would like access to these charts or the formulas used to build them, or for more information about Platts on the Net, please contact Jim Foster atjim_foster@platts.com.

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